Mallari, Karla S. <br/><br/>
A System Of Differential Equations Modeling Covid-19 Transmission Dynamics In Pampanga  [manuscript] / 
Karla S. Mallari. 
 - Magalang, Pampanga :  Pampanga State Agricultural University,  August 2022. 
 - 111 leaves ;  28 cm. + 1 computer disc (4 3/4 in.) 
<br/><br/>The main objective of the study was to develop and present a system of differential equations modeling COVID-19 transmission dynamics in the province of Pampanga. The researcher described COVID-i9 status and modeled it using the given observed data. COVID-19 cases in Pampanga increased dramatically from March 2020 to December 2021, reaching six to seven times the annual increase of cases. The ADAR of COVID-19 at a certain area or per 100,000 population increased from low to high risk over a two-year period. The vaccination status for COVID-19 is increasing - 48.74 % of the population were fully vaccinated as of December 2021. An SIR-D model was developed, which was based on the SIR model developed by Kermack and McKendrick in 1927. An analytical and numerical method was used in this model analysis. I(t) was solved aualytically fullowed by sulving the parameter of the wuodel using the optimization process in the Excel solver. The numerical solution for dS dt, dR/dt and dD/dt was solved using Runge-Kutta method in Scilab 6.1.1.Based on the developed model, the transmission rate (r), removal rate (recovery (A) and     death rate (w)), proportion of the population using face mask (0) and the efficacy of face mask (¢) were significant factors driving the rise of cases.     Keywords: COVID-19, Runge-Kutta method, SIR model, modelling, SIRD.