Abstract This study aimed to determine the factors that predict COVID-19 incidences in Magalang, Pampanga from March 2020 to December 2021 using path analysis. Path Analysis was utilized to find relationships, direct and indirect effects between variables of interest. The descriptive survey method was used to analyse the daily cases, deaths, recoveries, and the COVID-19 incidences of each barangay. Meanwhile, regression analysis was used to determine the predictors among the personal, sociological, and climatic factors. The study showed that there is a significant difference on the COVID-19 incidences among the barangays and it also showed that amnong the variables, age, ternperature, population, and relative humidity can significantly predict COVID- 19 incidences. The path analysis model showed the significant positive and negative direct effects of age, temperature, relative humidity, and population to COVID- 19 incidences while the model also showed the indirect effects of rainfall to temperature through path of relative humidity and path from relative humidity to COVID-19 incidences via temperature. The results of the study support the need for COVID-19 awareness program especially for the barangays with higher incidences, bigger population, and persons greater than 30 years old. Moreover, people are advised to be more cautious during cold and humid seasons.